Russian soldier morale plummets and Ukrainian victory hopes in the west revive


There has been an upsurge in recent weeks moderate optimism in the Western powers in the face of possible Ukrainian victory against Russia.

Lack of Russian offensive capabilities and effectiveness Ukrainian counterattack The confidence of the Western Allies in the capabilities of the Ukrainian army was revived.

These Ukrainian counterattacks, while not resulting in territorial gains for some time, have severely damaged Russian logistics capabilityin a movement reminiscent of the severing of the occupants’ power lines offensive on Kyiv in the first weeks of the war.

gain in offensive capacity

Russia tries to counter new Ukrainian weapons systems America, UK and its allies.

To deal with a potentially large-scale counterattack, Russia began to switch to new equipment, mainly donbass already Kherson,

The objective of Kremlin The turning point of the summer is to recover its offensive potential for a new push. However, the Ukrainian authorities have also announced that they are preparing Big offensive for the start of the school year,

According to Ukrainian military officials, the attack on Gerson and Crimea This summer, it aims to destroy the military infrastructure of the Russian army in preparation for the highly publicized counterattack.

in the statements BBCUK Minister of Defence, ben wallaceHe assured that the optimism is justified.

assured that Russia is in a “very critical condition” and has been moving a few meters a week, indicating that his offensive ability He’s tired and doing his best to get it back.

The morale of the Russian army is low and begins to notice the exhaustion

He pointed out that “functionally, Russia suffers from a shortage of ammunition, vehicles and personnel. This would be the problem behind the decision of Vladimir PoutineAnnounced on August 25, by decree, he announced to increase his army limit to 137,000 to reach a figure of 1,150,628 active soldiers.

However, the British Ministry of Defense considers that “it is unlikely that the decree will have a substantial effect on the growth of russian war power in Ukraine’.

Ministry of Defense in its daily report UK He recalls that “Russia has lost thousands of soldiers, recruits very few military personnel under contract and is technically not required to serve outside Russian territory”.

in interview with BBCWallace said Russian army morale at rock bottomAnd that Russia is starting to notice the exhaustion.

“their diplomatic power has diminished and theirs” The long-term economic outlook is bleakSix months after the Russian war, it turned out to be costly and tragically damaging,” he said.

In the coming months, the situation of Russian troops will gradually deteriorate

For his part, the former chief executive of the Royal Unites Service Institute, Michael Clarkehe assured several times that the position of the Russian troops would gradually deteriorate over the next few months and that next spring “the pendulum would turn towards the Ukrainians”.

In all cases, war is expected And, at this point, it’s hard to predict how that will play out in the months to come.

that the Ukrainians succeed in strengthening it current to your goals On the battlefield, Clark said, the West must maintain and increase the pace of sending military aid.

“The Ukrainians can drive the Russians out of the territories they have seized since February 24 if the West does not give in to the pressure of winter gas supplies, if the West is able to increase production of its own weapons and if the Russians don’t”. what they do,” he said. several times,

The deciding factor

The bankruptcy of Russian morality is also an element that worries experts. Institute for the Study of War He thinks this will be decisive in the months to come.

The main effect of this low morale is the difficulty in recruiting new fighters. Pro-Russian population of occupied Ukraine,

russian mercenaries

who, a priori, should be more motivated to fight under the Russian flag, in whose defense, according to the Kremlin’s rhetoric, Russia launched a “special military operation“, fled Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, Mariupol and Melitopol Or they hide in dungeons to avoid being forcibly recruited by the Russian army or independence fighters, and are sent to fight on the front lines.

According Michael ClarkeThe decisive battle will take place at the turn of summer and before winter, and will be concentrated in Kherson.

He said that the Ukrainians would only have a few months recover the kherson Before winter comes and any progress becomes impossible: “The operation against Kherson must be successful before winter because during winter the ground hardens and snow sets in and this favors the defender over relation to the attacker.”

Alexander Lukashenko, leader of Belarus

If Ukraine fails at Gerson, Russia will have time to rebuild its supply linesReplenish destroyed materiel, fortify conquered territory, and replenish casualties with new troops in the face of a new spring offensive.

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