Georgia in danger over Putin’s efforts to restore the USSR – EURACTIV.com

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In Putin’s efforts to restore the USSR, the greatest risk lies with Georgia, followed by Armenia, Moldova and Kazakhstan, as well as other former Soviet republics in Central Asia, writes Roman Rukomeda.

Roman Rukomeda is a Ukrainian political analyst. It’s his 64th account of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The 194th day of Russian aggression and war against Ukraine is over. Russian military aggression against Ukraine is linked to Putin’s attempt to restore the new Soviet Union in accordance with the symbolism of dates.

In December 2022, it will be 100 years since the creation of the Soviet Union. Putin is trying to reinvent the new Soviet/Russian empire by annexing and capturing parts of the former Soviet empire with Ukraine at its core. Moreover, on October 7, 2022, Putin will celebrate his 70th birthday.

This year is special for him, and he intends to end his birthday with milestones. Besides the dates mentioned, Putin is obsessed with restoring direct Russian influence over the former Soviet republics. Putin’s obsession is strictly directed towards the past with no vision for the future.

As I have mentioned many times before, Russia will not stop its aggression and bloodlust. But Putin’s Russia can be controlled by military defeat. The biggest concerns now are Georgia, Armenia, Moldova and Kazakhstan, along with other former Soviet republics in Central Asia. Besides aggression against Ukraine, the highest risk now is probably Georgia, which lacks the military might to defend against any invasion.

In addition, two important pipelines (oil and gas) that carry Azeri hydrocarbons to Turkey (and further to Europe) are partially located on Georgian territory. Cutting these pipelines is extremely important for Russia, which wants to achieve a complete oil and gas blockade of Europe. Georgia can become the gateway to another possible Russian occupation of Armenia. Moldova is also threatened by the Russian military base in Transnistria, which has some 5,000

A week has passed since the start of the so-called “Ukrainian offensive”, as the media defined it. According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the offensive in southern Ukraine began in early summer. But it looked more like long-range MLRS strikes on Russian logistics hubs (with warehouses, military bases, command centers, railroad hubs, etc.).

The start of massive Ukrainian strikes on bridges over the Dnipro river (to cut off a Russian military group in Kherson of about 15,000-20,000 soldiers) and on Crimea are also part of the offensive. But in reality, as most war experts prove, it is more about the preparation of a real offensive than an offensive itself.

The Ukrainian army is seriously weakening the Russian offensive and defensive capabilities in the south, east and even the northeast (Kharkiv region) to create the conditions under which the Russian aggressors will withdraw on their own or be surrounded and captured due to lack of ammunition and other Provisions.

So far, the Russian aggressors show no intention of retreating. They even try to attack the Donetsk region to pursue the so-called “total liberation of Donbass”. Over the next two months, the Russian military will have to switch to defense. Moreover, the constant attacks on Russian logistics will force them to leave part of the captured Ukrainian territories in the east and south.

Unfortunately, the situation on the captured Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remains complicated. Russian terrorists continue to bomb the station and nearby infrastructure. Many electrical wires in the plant are damaged and the nuclear reactors cannot connect the generated energy to Ukraine’s electricity grid.

The Russians also continue to pressure and, in some cases, torture the Ukrainian personnel who operate the station. The IAEA mission has already left the station with the exception of two members of the delegation – will this deter Russian terrorists from violent actions on the station? The UN, EU and NATO should make more efforts to secure the situation of the nuclear power plant to eliminate the risk of another nuclear disaster.

On the captured Ukrainian territories there is a growing resistance movement. There are almost no volunteers to receive Russian passports in the south or east of occupied Ukraine. The few who dare to obtain a Russian passport are immediately asked to join the Russian army and are drafted into the troops fighting against Ukraine.

The Russian aggressors continue to carry out in the captured regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia all sorts of atrocities such as those committed at Bucha. The majority of these crimes are committed intentionally to intimidate the local Ukrainian population, the majority of whom remain loyal to the Ukrainian state. In particular, the liberation of Ukrainian land in its south and east by the armed forces brings people hope and optimism. Every day brings Ukraine closer to final victory.


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