Colonel Vendla said: “From a logistical point of view, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are going through an interesting period. Maintaining such a large force in the field requires significant logistical support. However, they face problems here. Wars are often won with the help of logistical support.”
Russia is also transferring some of its forces south, in a bid to ward off any potential Ukrainian counter-offensive, Colonel Vendla added.
Nevertheless, no major developments have occurred over the past week and the main thrust remains towards the Bakhmut-Siversk line, he added, at least for the next few days.
“For the next three to seven days, the focus will not change. Additional pressure will continue towards Bahmut-Siversk,” he said.
Significant recent events are the recent Ukrainian airstrike on Saky airbase in occupied Crimea, as well as a strike on an airbase in Gomel, Belarusian territory.
Of the former, Vendla said, “The attack caused no fundamental change, although it inflicted injuries”, putting the estimate at 10-12 aircraft destroyed on the ground.
The strike also: “implies that the armed forces of the Russian Federation cannot be sure of being impervious to Russian firepower, even in what they consider their rear”, he added.
Regarding the Gomel attack, Vendla said: “There is no official information about the attack that took place near Gomel, Belarus, as to what exactly was destroyed. acted as an air base from which the Russian forces operated. According to various sources, there were losses in various types of equipment,” Vendla said.
Vendla also pointed to significant armor losses that the Russian military may struggle to replace, due to pre-war equipment having installed Western and foreign technologies that are now sanctioned, and forcing the Russians to rely on the removal of aging military equipment from warehouses. .
In total, Russian forces have lost more tanks than in the current inventory of the British and German armies combined, he added.
Russia is still building a third army corps, he added, while three volunteer units are being recruited from the St. Petersburg region.
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